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I've got a funny feeling about this
Posted by Dan Stafford on 2010-08-05

The White House is touting a 'report' this morning called, 'What Happened to the Oil' put out by scientists working with the National Incident Command (NIC). 

It says that one team estimates a total of 4.9 million barrels was dumped into the Gulf. In layman's terms, that's 205.8 million gallons. 

The language of this report is pretty bland in its descriptions and tone. Oil has been 'released' in the 'incident' for instance. 

But let's look at the numbers, how the White House is talking about it, and where some of the holes are. 

According to the findings, 33% of the oil has been taken care of via the Unified Command Operations, which includes: a) direct recovery from wellhead, b) burning, c) skimming, and d) chemical dispersing. 

A third of the oil, or about 68.6 million gallons - and the White House is referring to this saying, "a significant amount of this is the direct result of the federal government’s aggressive response to the spill". That might be a slight exaggeration, but is debatable. 

If you look at this report, combined with the restorethegulf.gov site date, you find some funny things. 

According to restorethegulf, there have been 31,100 people deployed. The accident has been raging for 107 days now, and those 31,100 people have taken care of 68.6 million gallons of oil. That breaks down to 2,185 gallons/person, or about 20 gallons a day. That seems pretty inefficient, and I can't help but wonder how may of those 31,100 personal were bureaucrats vs. emergency personnel. 

Looking beyond that, of the 2/3 not recovered by the government activities, 16% has been naturally dispersed, 25% has evaporated or dissolved, and 26% is 'residual'. 

Well that all seems good right? At least it's accounted for. Well, one key part of this 'report' is the definition laid out a little further in

Dissolution is different from dispersion. Dissolution is the process by which individual hydrocarbon molecules from the oil separate and dissolve into the water just as sugar can be dissolved in water. Dispersion is the process by which larger volumes of oil are broken down into smaller droplets of oil. 

That means that 16% that's been dispersed has just gone somewhere else a little trickier and in smaller quantities. Like a gang of thugs, it still exists, just in different places. 

You might also be wondering, what's 'residual'. The report clarifies that as well

Residual: After accounting for the categories that can be measured directly or estimated (i.e., recovery operations, dispersion, and evaporation and dissolution), an estimated 26% remains. This figure is a combination of categories all of which are difficult to measure or estimate. It includes oil still on or just below the surface in the form of light sheen or tar balls, oil that has washed ashore or been collected from the shore, and some that is buried in sand and sediments and may resurface through time. This oil has also begun to degrade through natural processes.

So if 16% has dispersed and 26% is still on or just below the surface, then in reality 42% or a whopping 86,436,000 gallons of oil are still in the Gulf of Mexico, messing up our environment. 

The White House headline for the release of this report, however read, "New Report: 74% of Oil in BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill has been Contained or Mitigated". 

A fairly gross overstatement, in my estimation. 

Even if they were correct and not spinning the numbers, that leaves 53.5 million gallons left in the Gulf, a massive environmental disaster by anybody's definition. 

Shame on the White House for trying to whitewash the actual situation. 


 
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